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An Alternative Paradigm for Planning and Investing 

Better to be Approximately Right than Precisely Wrong...

Modern vs Modular

Simplicity and Complexity



Fatal Conceit or Absurd Delusion


"In a world where the future is indeterminate and depends on reflexive interactions between human behavior, expectations, and reality, the concept of a single correct model of how the economy operates, assumed by rational expectations, is an absurd delusion."

Hat tip ~ Anatole Kaletsky, CAPITALISM 4.0



"For every complex problem, there is an answer that is clear, simple and wrong"  - H.L. Mencken



"I would not give a fig for the simplicity this side of complexity, But I would give my life for the simplicity on the other side of complexity." ~ Oliver Wendell Holmes

Simplicity on this side of complexity is Fools Gold!



Wanted: A New Model for Financial Markets

Financial Times, September 28, 2009, John Authers


 "Don Putnam, designer of investment products since the 1970’s points to the most fundamental of lessons learnt from last years global financial implosion. “Markets are defined by  their participants as much as they are by their mechanics“., and it is peoples motivations that ultimately count.

 The car is important but the driver is crucial - and panic among drivers, if you will, makes the technology of the roadways irrelevant, says Putnam. To some that conclusion may seems self evident. But to accept it sweeps away assumptions that for half a century formed the foundation of the financial industry. The reigning theory, often referred to in shorthand as “efficient markets“, is deeply embedded in the way that markets operate. The regulations for pension funds and banks  both ultimately hinge on these assumptions. So does much law on securities fraud.,

 It is central to business schools’ curriculum and  is part of the Chartered Financial Analyst qualification that acts as a gateway to the investment profession.. Fund managers run their business by comparing their performance against benchmarks indices, another idea from efficient markets. The products based on derivatives that  grew notorious  for their role in the market crash all stemmed directly from efficient market theory.

 If the theory needs to be abandoned , the effect on investing will be profound. More important still is what will come to replace it. Efficient markets borrowed from mathematics, but that is now widely regarded as an over simplified and downright misleading theory that fostered the cavalier confidence leading to the crash.

 Academics are now ransacking a range of other disciplines  in a quest for a better understanding. The search has ranged from evolutionary biology through behavioral psychology to thermodynamics and chaos theory. None is likely to deliver answers as clean and simple as those that came from efficient markets."

 Hat tip ~ John Authers, Financial Times




Look deep into Nature, and then you will understand everything better...

~  Albert Einstein

Simple but Not Easy....

~ Warren Buffet

"Make everything as simple as possible, but not simpler"

~ Albert Einstein


The goal of Modular-Finance is to make Complexity as simple as possible, but not simpler.

For human beings, the only way to manage a complex system or solve a complex problem is to break it up. In the breaking apart, it is best to look for points of natural division, dividing the " the joints, as nature directs, not breaking any limb in half as a bad carver might."

Once the system or problem has been divided in this fashion, one can hide the complexity of each part behind an abstraction and an interface. The time to begin the process of breaking apart the system is when the complexity of the whole threatens to overwhelm progress toward the goal

But how is it possible to "break apart" a complex system, without destroying it? How does one find the lightly connected modules in a welter of interdependencies? And how can the modules be separated from one another? Modular-Finance deals with these questions - and shows how individuals with knowledge can split apart a large design and task structure.

Hat Tip ~ Design Rules, The Power of Modularity 


Hierarchy is way of limiting complexity in the interests of both stability and evolvability. Systems structured on this way possess a basic, fundamental, competitive simplicity.


"In The World of Finance - Complexity is the new Opacity... The Ability to Simplify Complexity is the Key to Innovation and Growth..... and The Road to Prosperity in the 21st Century"



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